I am about to take part in what I hope to be the first of many live drafts in the next couple months. My plan is to draft primarily position players in the opening round. Forget pitching and power hitter outfielders, the real backbone of a fantasy team should be its infield. It's much easier to pick up suitable outfielders and surprise starting pitching off the wire during the season. Marquee players like Vladimir Guerrero are too tempting come draft day, so I haven't always put this into practice, but tonight I plan to.

I'm excited specifically about taking a chance with Scott Rolen, whose surgically repaired shoulders make him such a question mark that he's not even ranked in the top 100 players on Yahoo this year. I'll draft another third baseman for insurance, but I think Rolen is a risk worth taking.

This Blog Entry is About

Bob Wickman (and a little about Scott Erickson just because)

Bob Wickman is a great man. The man was an all-star last year, led the league in saves, and was a big part of the Indians' playoff push. At the end of this career year, the Indians slapped him in the face by vocally pursuing two other closers (B.J. Ryan and Trevor Hoffman) before even considering resigning Wickman. That's a slap and a half in my book. What more do they want? And even with all this, Wickman kept his cool. He didn't blow up. He didn't get off his (John) Rocker about it. He just hung out, looking at his options, watching, and waiting like the U.S. Special Forces. Then when the Indians were done being punks, they signed Wickman to a one-year deal. Then Wickman spoke, and I became happy.

"Who wouldn't talk to those guys?...Who wouldn't talk to the phenom, B.J. Ryan, and who wouldn't talk to a guy who has 400 saves?" -Bob Wickman

"At the end of last season, it took a couple days to pack up and stuff like that, and there were a lot of people coming up to me in the grocery store and all that. That was great - plus, the schooling. It's important to have a routine, not just for me but the kids, knowing their teachers and everybody in the classroom." (my emphasis added, because Bob Wickman knows how to Educate Children!) -the esteemed Bob Wickman

Anyway, for fantasy purposes, Wickman says he's feeling really good right now, no arm pain. Sounds like he'll be a solid pick for your closer spot this year. But, more importantly, you should put him on your team for his children; they need continuity in the classroom and on the fantasy squad.


oh yeah, Scott Erickson is signed to the Yankees triple-A team (columbus clippers). This really isn't notable at all, except I miss the days when Erickson was pretty solid on the Orioles. I always liked the Orioles pitching duo of Erickson and Mussina (even though Mussina's a little bitch). Think what you want about Brady Anderson...Erickson just wants to play ball. He even scheduled his valentine's dinner w/ his wife on a different day, expecting a call from some team. Go Scott!

if i feel gutsy on draft day, i may end up w/ a roster including jason schmidt and carlos beltran. i'm not scared, are you?

With the signing of Bengie Molina, the Blue Jays become a force, and not just a van der Waals force. I was skeptical when J.P. Ricciardi started blowing his budget surplus this offseason, but now I'm a believer. This team, if it stays healthy, can easily win 90 games. Their rotation now boasts Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett at the top. B.J. Ryan may not be an entirely proven commodity after only one excellent season with the Orioles, but no matter what happens he'll no doubt be an improvement over Miguel Batista. And look at this projected starting lineup:

C - Molina. Behind Joe Mauer, probably the best hitting catcher in the American League. Also handles a staff well.
1B - Lyle Overbay. A sleeper if I've ever seen one. If I can nab this guy near the middle of the draft, I'll do it.
2B - Aaron Hill. 24-year-old who I don't know much about, but he hit .274 in 361 at-bats last year, so he can't be all bad. They'll miss Orlando Hudson (a big chip in the Glaus trade) defensively.
3B - Troy Glaus. An injury waiting to happen, sure, but everyone knows he can still rake. He had a better than expected year in AZ last year: 37 home runs, 97 RBI. And if he goes down, Shea Hillenbrand is waiting to spell him.
SS - Russ Adams. It's cool that they were confident enough in Hill to trade Hudson, but Adams sort of makes me nervous. He stole 11 bases which is nice, but that .325 on-base could become a problem. This guy's gonna be 25 at the start of the season so there's definitely room for improvement (and I guess someone has to hit at the back end of this lineup), but I'd still have Eric Hinske doing shortstop drills this spring training.
DH - Hillenbrand. The Jays love Hillenbrand, and they should. They could've traded him for much more than he was worth at last year's trade deadline. I think they're smart for keeping him. He strikes out a lot, but he's a gamer. And if Hillenbrand goes down, they still have Hinske. Bench got depth.
LF - Reed Johnson/Hinske. This is the second spot in the order that I'd be worried about, but, again, somebody's gotta hit eighth and ninth. Reed Johnson is a good fourth-outfielder type. After that ROY campaign, Hinske gets paid too much for hitting too little. I like him better as an overpaid utility man than as an everyday third baseman,
CF - Vernon Wells. This guy will do big things this season. He'll hit around .285, hit 35 homers, knock in 110, and steal ten bases. You're gonna want him on your team.
RF - Alexis Rios/Frank Catalanotto. Rios is young and is only going improve. Catalanotto isn't much of a fantasy player beyond a one-week injury plug-in, but he's a rare kind of player: an unassuming spray-hitter with a career .297 average who doesn't seem to have the durability to last more than 130 games. Regardless, this is the coolest platoon in the majors.

Red Sox fans probably think everything is okay now that Theo is back, but they need to actually start getting concerned about finishing third this season.

I'll write tomorrow about how much I love Scott Kazmir, at which point I will stop talking about the AL East for a while, I swear.

When finding a backstop for your fantasy squad, you can either agonize over the paltry options, hoping to get one of the few gems, or you can just give up and figure it out later. Last season I chose the first option, grabbing Victor Martinez early in the draft. Even though he was basically a one-man drain on every offensive stat throughout the first half of the season, it ended up working well when he figured out how to hit later on. Still, the anguish I suffered from his fecal performance through the first few months has made me a catching conservative and I think I'll adopt the second strategy this time around. Essentially, if you can find a solid catcher later in the draft after shoring up more important positions, you rejoice in your good fortune and set your expectations at an appropriately modest level. If you don't see anyone all that exciting, you grab what you can and wait until the season starts, before snapping up whoever's hot out of the free agent pool. Only with relief pitchers can you find more diamonds in the waiver-wire rough.

Interestingly, the most promising catching prospect in my mind is a Japanese import. Though I took some criticism for drafting Tadahito Iguchi last year at 2nd base (Iguchi's Hoochies!!!!), he ended up being a solid pick, living up to the modest standards i'd set. This year I'll probably go for Japanese star Kenji Johjima. At age 29, he's only a few years shy of the usual expiration date on catchers, but he had excellent numbers last year in Japan (.330 average, 36 homers) and his walk/K ratio is promising (49walks/45Ks). Successful Japanese players (like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui) tend to have good walk to K ratios, while Japanese busts (Kaz Matsui) don't. Besides, with the current state of catching in the majors, it's worth a gamble.

Guys who will suck this year compared to last year:

Brian Roberts, Miguel Cabrera, Derrek Lee, Dontrelle Willis, Cliff Floyd (will get injured)...

and Kevin Millwood is going to be terrible!

I'm not sure if the math works out on this, but I thought of this theory a little while ago that, in terms of getting wins, it might be a good idea to draft only starting pitchers from a single division. Given the unbalanced schedule, they'd be playing against each other more often. For instance, say the core of your rotation consists of starters from the AL East: Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, A.J. Burnett, and Mike Mussina. These are all pitchers who are more or less expected to win when they take the mound (Burnett and Mussina are shakier propositions, but you get the idea), so you'd be working with much better than a 50-50 chance that one of your guys gets the win. And this shouldn't really have a negative effect on any other pitching stats. Maybe the best thing to do would be to look for pitchers with better winning percentages within their own division.

As for Cubs starting pitchers, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are probably the number one cause of heart attacks among fantasy owners. But Carlos Zambrano, whose emotional displays on the mound look like they are raising his blood pressure, thus making him the most likely candidate for an actual heart attack, has always done me good. His win total was lower last year than the year before (14 to 16) and his ERA higher (3.26 to 2.75), but the additions of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones bode well for better run support. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him.

Ceremonial first post.

Top Pitching picks for 2006:

Roger Clemens - if he plays, he'll either be in houston, texas, new york or boston. he'll put up big numbers at at any of the four, though watch for a higher ERA in Texas.
Pedro Martinez - with the personnel the mets brought in, he should have no trouble coming up w/ tons of wins, given his usual miniscule ERA.
Jake Peavy - ok, i know i said this last year, but THIS is gonna be his breakout year. you heard it here (maybe first).
Roy Oswalt - should be more of the same
Johan Santana - got off to a slow start last year (for him), but dominated after the all-star break.
Mark Mulder - i think this is the season he busts out again. on the cardinals, he'll obviously get wins at least.
Barry Zito - struggled early, solid later.
Noah Lowry! - i think he'll be the Chris Carpenter of 2006.
Brad Penny - i want him to be good for some reason.

I'll be shying away from Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, and pitchers in Chicago. Discuss.