Saturday, February 04, 2006

I'm not sure if the math works out on this, but I thought of this theory a little while ago that, in terms of getting wins, it might be a good idea to draft only starting pitchers from a single division. Given the unbalanced schedule, they'd be playing against each other more often. For instance, say the core of your rotation consists of starters from the AL East: Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, A.J. Burnett, and Mike Mussina. These are all pitchers who are more or less expected to win when they take the mound (Burnett and Mussina are shakier propositions, but you get the idea), so you'd be working with much better than a 50-50 chance that one of your guys gets the win. And this shouldn't really have a negative effect on any other pitching stats. Maybe the best thing to do would be to look for pitchers with better winning percentages within their own division.

As for Cubs starting pitchers, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are probably the number one cause of heart attacks among fantasy owners. But Carlos Zambrano, whose emotional displays on the mound look like they are raising his blood pressure, thus making him the most likely candidate for an actual heart attack, has always done me good. His win total was lower last year than the year before (14 to 16) and his ERA higher (3.26 to 2.75), but the additions of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones bode well for better run support. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him.

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