I thought it'd be interesting to revisit my predictions/assessment of the draft way back in early March. As you could see were you to scroll down a bit, I wrote:

"My thoughts on the draft:

Alan, me, the Bens, Nate, seabass, and maybe Tobo came out of the draft in the best shape.

Phelan probably had the worst draft - which is understandable since he wasn't there."

The top 7 in the league right now are: ben mercer, ben's brother, seabass, me, ben ewing, sargon, and nate. 5 out of 7 ain't bad. Definitely didn't see ben's brother or sargon being the forces they are right now. But, honestly, it's anyone's game. We have 7 teams realistically vying for the top 3 spots. Really, 6 teams vying for the top spot. I was dead on with Phelan's team though. Worst.Team.In.The.League.

How I see it finishing up:

Mercer's team is in decline and, unless he makes some startling roster moves, he'll finish in 2nd or 3rd. His team has been all power hitting so far, but with the loss of some key bat production, his team doesn't have the versatility to adapt, with other category production.

Ben's brother's team is extremely strong right now. I think he'll end up at #1, riding a strong relief rotation, Roger Clemens, and a fantastic outfield to high marks in saves and power categories.

Seabass's team is all pitching and he's projected to exceed the maximum innings limit. I see him staying in the top 4 or so until the last month when he'll drop out. He doesn't have the lineup to seriously compete at the top.

My team is all percentages - I lead the league in batting average, ERA, and WHIP. I'm the wild card really. I have the inning limit room to stack my team with pitchers to increase my win, save, and K totals at the end when others reach that limit. It all depends on how my pitching staff finishes. I'm glad to be finally rid of Bartolo Colon for good and I've made a few decent pickups for spot starters. I don't think I'll make many gains in offensive categories, but no losses either. My season depends on the wins and K's, basically. I'm fairly confident I'll be top 3 - 4th at absolute lowest if things don't pan out.

Ben Ewing has stacked his team with pitching but he's just about even on the innings limit so I don't see him really being able to take advantage of it. His strength is in the absolute offensive categories (runs, RBIs, etc. though curiously not HRs). If his lineup can maintain that production, he has the staff to make some gains in the pitching categories. But, his main deficiencies in pitching categories are the percentage based categories (ERA, WHIP), which are hard to improve this late in the season. His team has a chance of being in the top 3, but I think he'll be 4 or 5.

Sargon's team is extremely balanced, without a clear strength. That will play against him at the end I think. I don't see him having the personnel to make a definitive statement as a fantasy team. He'll keep middling in the 7-10 mark in most categories, finishing 5th or 6th.

Nate's team has a lot of underperforming pitchers and position players. He's the furthest out, and his strengths are all across the board, with no rhyme or reason to them. I don't see him seriuosly challenging for a top position. He may rise up one or two spots depending on whether his underperformers snap out of their respective funks. But, I'm gonna pencil him in at 7th for now.

So my final prediction?
1.Nomo Barajas
2.Dbow(on Fresh Rye)
3.BashinGuyzBoffinChix
4.The Go! Team
5.The Metro Gnomes
6.seabassball
7.Long Term Hustle

Surprises

My team last year depended on surprising seasons out of guys like Chris Carpenter, Derrek Lee, and Morgan Ensberg. My team this year has a few surprise performers as well, though not as extreme as last year (hence my middling 5th-6th rank right now). I had a good feeling about Carpenter when I drafted him last year and that feeling translated into a Cy Young season. Similarly, I expected a solid season out of Brad Penny this year, and he's delivering. 7-1, 2.34 ERA, 58 Ks. Penny is on track for the breakout season I was hoping out of him. Another surprise performer, though I expected big things from him from the start, is Jason Schmidt. After a big downturn last season, he seems to have regained his ace-form, w/ a 6-2 record, 2.53 ERA, and 77 K's.

Two other guys exceeding expectations on my team are Joe Mauer and Matt Holliday. Mauer is having a ridiculous season at the plate, batting .384. Additionally, he's provided an embarrassing percentage of my team's stolen bases (w/ 6). Holliday is batting .329 with 13 HRs, 41 RBIs, and 3 SBs, definitely helping bolster my saggy outfield. I don't think i'll be able to part w/ him anytime soon (sorry Tobo).

I have complete confidence that I'll finish the season near the top of every pitching category, as well as batting average. The performance of Jack Wilson and my outfield will make or break me. Hopefully, they can keep a good amount of power numbers coming in, as well as being a little more active on the basepaths to bolster my puny SB #'s.

Does anyone have a pitching staff that can rival mine? NO!

Johan Santana
Jason Schmidt
Brad Penny
Noah Lowry
...and, uh...Bartolo Colon, my supposed staff ace.

if colon ever figures his shit out, watch out pitching categories. your points are MINE

i'm really trying to avoid making any rash decisions early on, especially since my team has floundered out of the gate. i've had three pleasant surprises; two i expected, one i didn't. brad penny and david wright have been spectacular and i figured as much (despite all the penny-haters). chris shelton has been even better, and i had no idea what i was getting in to w/ him. my offense in general has been fantastic - i'm leading the league in average and RBIs, and i'm very competitive in runs. SBs are my only weak offensive category. but what's really killing me is my pitching. I now have two bigtime starters on the DL: noah lowry, who looked great in the 0.2 innings he's pitched so far this season, and bartolo colon, who looked godawful in his second to last start but passable in the last before getting injured. so, with my staff consisting right now of jason schmidt (who's been alright), brad penny (who's been great), and brad radke (who's been brad radke), i'm very tempted to go out and unload some hitting talent to bring in a good arm or two.

but i shouldn't. that's exactly the kind of rash move that could hurt me down the road when colon and lowry come back and pitch well, giving me a solid but not spectacular rotation. i'm thinking if i keep my lineup the way it is, all i'll need is a decent pitching performance to be very competitive.

it's hard though. we're nearing hte point where early season excuses no longer hold water. "slow starter" will be turning in to "off-year" relatively soon.

Seeing Mercer drop from 1st to 12th in one day made me smile

My thoughts on the draft:

Alan, me, the Bens, Nate, seabass, and maybe Tobo came out of the draft in the best shape.

Phelan probably had the worst draft - which is understandable since he wasn't there.


Trades -
I'd be interested in trading for an outfielder or a starting pitcher. The main guy I'd be willing to part with is Delgado. Offer away fools!

I am about to take part in what I hope to be the first of many live drafts in the next couple months. My plan is to draft primarily position players in the opening round. Forget pitching and power hitter outfielders, the real backbone of a fantasy team should be its infield. It's much easier to pick up suitable outfielders and surprise starting pitching off the wire during the season. Marquee players like Vladimir Guerrero are too tempting come draft day, so I haven't always put this into practice, but tonight I plan to.

I'm excited specifically about taking a chance with Scott Rolen, whose surgically repaired shoulders make him such a question mark that he's not even ranked in the top 100 players on Yahoo this year. I'll draft another third baseman for insurance, but I think Rolen is a risk worth taking.